Tracking the Tropics: Currently No Named Storms

The tropics remain quiet in terms of named storms. There are currently no named systems in either the Eastern Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic. Hurricane season will begin to wind down over the next few weeks, but we can still see a few systems spawn up during that time.

If any storms do develop, you can see them on the maps below, both of which can be found at any time by hovering your mouse over "Current Conditions" and selecting one of the "Tropics" maps.

Tracking the Tropics: Ophelia Stays Over Ocean, Philippe Heads West

There still has not been too much concern for the US mainland with regards to tropical cyclones over the past few weeks and it looks like it'll stay that way at least for the next several days. 

Let's go over the latest on Ophelia and Philippe.

As of 11AM EST this morning, Tropical Storm Ophelia has top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving to the North-Northwest at around three miles per hour. Ophelia poses no threat to land until crossing Bermuda this weekend as you can see by the latest projected path from the National Hurricane Center below.

Philippe is the storm we should keep a closer eye on. As of 11AM EST this morning, Philippe is a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. This storm is moving to the West-Northwest at 12 miles per hour and is expected to take a more Westward turn by this weekend. 

The good news about Philippe; however, is that I do expect this storm to weaken back to a tropical depression and stay at that strength at least through this weekend. You can see Philippe's latest forecast track below.

Tracking the Tropics: The Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific Remain Quiet!

The tropics remain quiet for the time being. Remember, the 2011 Hurricane Season does not end until November, so there is still plenty of time for storms to develop over the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific waters.

The only two areas to watch are two waves that recently came off the coast of Africa. The National Hurricane Center currently has both of these waves, circled in the photo to the left, marked with a low probability for tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. Beyond this time frame, anywhere from nothing to a lot can happen with these waves.

As always, I'll keep one eye on that and another on your local tri-state area forecast and other national weather headlines! Wish I had three eyes! :)

Hopefully everyone is enjoying the unofficial start of fall! I just wish the nights wouldn't get so cool already here on Long Island!

Tracking the Tropics: Maria Remains Only Active Storm...For Now

Tropical Storm Maria is the only active storm in the tropics right now while the rest of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific waters remain quiet.

We still have awhile before the end of Hurricane Season 2011, so this quiet period is not expected to last long. There should still be several more storms this hurricane season.

As of 2PM EST Wednesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Maria has top winds of 60 miles per hour, moving to the North at around 14 miles per hour. Maria will remain offshore as you see below and be out of the picture by this weekend.

That's all the tropics have to offer for now! Stay tuned for your latest updates.

Tracking the Tropics: Maria Riding Solo in Otherwise Quiet Tropical Waters

Tropical Storm Maria is the only active storm in the tropics right now while the rest of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific waters are fairly quiet.

We still have a ways to go before the end of Hurricane Season 2011, so this quiet period is not expected to last long. There should still be several more storms this hurricane season.

As of 8AM EST Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Maria has top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving to the North-Northwest at around five miles per hour. Maria is still expected to remain offshore as you see below and be out of the US picture by this weekend.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda. Residents of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should expect a general two to four inches of rain through this evening with isolated higher amounts likely.

We could see Maria strengthen a little over the next two days.

That's all the tropics have to offer for now! Stay tuned for your latest updates.

Tracking the Tropics: Post-Tropical Katia, Maria Likely to Stay Offshore, Nate Heads Into Mexico!

Well, here we are. In the height of hurricane season. And we can sure tell that it's an active time of year. Just take a look at the map above. We currently have three active storms between the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. 

These Atlantic and Gulf storms are the ones we typically watch out for as they have a much better shot of impacting weather here in the United States as opposed to any storms that develop in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. 

Speaking of the Pacific, I'll quickly mention that the Eastern Pacific Ocean remains clear of any tropical cyclones, you can see the map below from the National Hurricane Center for added proof! Just two waves with limited chances of development at this time. 

So, from Katia to Maria to Nate there's a lot going on and now is my time to explain to you whether or not the US will be threatened by these storms. Let's get started!

Tracking the Tropics: Katia Sails Away, TS Maria's Next Move, Plus Nate Eyes Mexico!

Well, here we are. In the height of hurricane season. And we can sure tell that it's an active time of year. Just take a look at the map above. We currently have three active storms between the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. 

These Atlantic and Gulf storms are the ones we typically watch out for as they have a much better shot of impacting weather here in the United States as opposed to any storms that develop in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. 

Speaking of the Pacific, I'll quickly mention that the Eastern Pacific Ocean remains clear of any tropical cyclones, you can see the map below from the National Hurricane Center for added proof! 

So, from Katia to Maria to Nate there's a lot going on and now is my time to explain to you whether or not the US will be threatened by these storms. Let's get started!

Tracking the Tropics: Katia, Lee-To-Be, And More...

TS Katia | C/o wunderground.com

From Katia to soon-to-be Lee to another tropical disturbance in the open Atlantic, the tropics are active and we're still far from the end of hurricane season.

But, do we have to be concerned about any of these storms impacting the US mainland? Let's start with Katia!

Atlantic Update:
As of 11PM EST Thursday night, Katia has top winds of 70 miles per hour, making it a tropical storm. Katia is now moving to the WNW at around 16 miles per hour. She's expected to regain strength beginning tomorrow and could become a major hurricane over the next several days.

Originally, it looked like Katia would stay well away from the US mainland, but I've kept a close eye on the storm as I wasn't completely buying that solution just yet. And based off the latest projected track of Katia, which you can see below, we still need to keep watching this storm closely as there is SOME potential for US East Coast impact later next week.

Although, it's more likely that Katia would be steered away from the East Coast, but this storm will need to be monitored closely.

Also in the Atlantic is an area of low pressure that has a decent shot and getting a little more organized, which would turn it into a tropical depression and potentially Tropical Storm Maria. This area of concern is indicated by a "1" on the map below:

Tracking the Tropics: Irene Recovery Continues, But All Eyes Turn Towards Katia...and Lee?

East Setauket, NY supermarket
still without water AFTER Irene
8/29/2011

Stores ran out of the essentials. Trees toppled. Power lines fell. Beaches eroded. All thanks to Irene. And she could have been even stronger. Now, it's time to continue gassing up the chainsaws and cleaning up the damage while simultaneously keeping an eye on what storm could be next.

Hurricane Irene spared many her full force, but left many others under water or without power, and in some cases, especially in North Carolina, left families without a home to come back to. And hundreds of thousands of people in several East coast states remain without power all thanks to Hurricane Irene.

Irene could have been a much stronger storm, but even as a category two storm over the Carolinas and then a category one/tropical storm over the New York tri-state area Irene caused extensive damage, even leaving roughly 25% of Long Island in New York without power.

East Setauket, NY street blocked by toppled tree - Hurricane Irene - 8/28/2011| Photo by Matt Hammer

Tropical Update: Emily Fizzles, But Will the Storm Make a Comeback?

Tropical Storm Emily is no longer a named storm. Emily weakened considerably as it interacted with Hispaniola. The remnants of the once tropical storm are now moving northwest at 16 miles per hour and the area of low pressure has top winds of around 35 miles per hour.

Just because the storm weakened does not mean that the rainfall has let up. In fact, parts of Hispaniola will still see anywhere from six to 12 inches of rain when all is said and done.

So, what happens with Emily's remnants from here?


The latest radar imagery of this area of low pressure in the Atlantic indicates the chance for the low wanting to split in two and head off in separate directions. This will have to be monitored closely. If this were to happen, one piece would head towards the Gulf of Mexico and the other piece would continue on the current northwest track of the low. Some restrengthening isn't out of the question just yet either. That's option one.

Option two. Emily's remnants would continue on a northwest track as a whole and begin to veer off into the Atlantic over the next 48 hours or so. Still, some minor restrengthening is possible within this time frame once the area of low pressure passes land and reaches the Atlantic again.

The image below shows what computer models think will happen with these remnants. You can see both possibilities discusses above are visible, while the more likely scenario is option two.

Tropical Update: Emily Eyes Caribbean, Pacific Hurricane Eugene Poses No Threat

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic and Haiti as Tropical Storm Emily, the fifth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, continues to churn in the Caribbean. The good news is, it does not look likely that Emily will strengthen enough to be upgraded to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Watches are posted for the US Virgin Islands and the Southeast Bahamas.

As of 5PM EDT, Emily had top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving West at 14 miles per hour and is currently centered less than 185 miles South-Southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Residents of the areas under Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches should be prepared for potentially life-threatening rainfall, storm surges up to around two feet, damaging tropical storm force sustained winds and wind gusts over 60 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm conditions will take place in Puerto Rico tonight, and the storm could produce up to six inches of rain, with locally higher amounts in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti by the time Emily passes through by Thursday.

Over the next two days, Emily is projected to make a turn to the Northwest. The storm will pass over Hispaniola by late tomorrow and will head into the Bahamas Thursday. 

Right now, it does not look like Emily poses a threat to the US mainland; however, this is something that will need to be watched closely, as there is the chance this could change. At this time, Emily should move out to sea after crossing the Bahamas late this week.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Eugene Forms in the Pacific Plus Emily Forming in the Atlantic?

Just confirmed: Tropical Storm Eugene has formed in the Eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, it looks like we'll have confirmation of the next tropical depression in the Atlantic sometime within the next six to 12 hours!

This is the large area of low pressure that's centered about 650 miles East of the Northern Windward Islands. This area is continuing to become more organized and according to the National Weather Service, there is 100% chance of tropical cyclone formation within 24 to 48 hours.

If this does in fact turn into our next tropical storm of the 2011 Hurricane Season, it would be named Emily. This is a storm the US mainland should be monitoring very closely.

Tropical storm watches and warning for the Windward and Leeward Islands may be needed as early as later today. An Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm this afternoon to analyze the storm's current strength and status.

Tropical Update: Don Disappears, Atlantic Activity

Tropical Storm Don strengthened a little last Thursday only to completely fade once it interacted with the South Texas coast - something that many Texas residents, believe it or not, did not want to happen. They need all the rain they can get right now and Don, now a tropical depression, looked like it would provide some relief, but Texas residents in drought stricken areas will have to wait a little longer before seeing any significant rainfall!

Do you live in the area where Tropical Storm Don was expected to make landfall? Let me know how you and other Texas residents are dealing with these rough hot and dry times!

Meanwhile, there's some additional tropical activity brewing in the Atlantic Ocean. There's a tropical wave right around Central America. This area of tropical activity is not expected to develop into a tropical depression or anything further at this time.

Behind that tropical wave is a large area of low pressure in the open Atlantic waters. It's highly likely that this low will form into a tropical depression before reaching the Leeward Islands early next week. This area of concern will need to be closely monitored for further development and could potentially become Emily, our next named storm of the 2011 Hurricane Season.