Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Ophelia Stays Well Offshore, Philippe Continues to Head West

Ophelia has become a hurricane over the Atlantic, but thankfully she continues to not be a problem for the US mainland. Hurricane Ophelia will stay well offshore and you can see her latest track as issued by the National Hurricane Center below.

Tropical Storm Philippe continues to move to the Northwest at around 13 miles per hour. Philippe's latest track takes the storm well South of Bermuda by early next week as the storm takes a turn towards the South-Southwest. I'll continue to monitor this storm and bring you the latest updates as needed.

Meanwhile, over the Eastern Pacific waters, Hilary has finally weakened to a tropical storm, but does not pose any threat to land.

Tracking the Tropics: Ophelia Stays Over Ocean, Philippe Heads West

There still has not been too much concern for the US mainland with regards to tropical cyclones over the past few weeks and it looks like it'll stay that way at least for the next several days. 

Let's go over the latest on Ophelia and Philippe.

As of 11AM EST this morning, Tropical Storm Ophelia has top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving to the North-Northwest at around three miles per hour. Ophelia poses no threat to land until crossing Bermuda this weekend as you can see by the latest projected path from the National Hurricane Center below.

Philippe is the storm we should keep a closer eye on. As of 11AM EST this morning, Philippe is a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. This storm is moving to the West-Northwest at 12 miles per hour and is expected to take a more Westward turn by this weekend. 

The good news about Philippe; however, is that I do expect this storm to weaken back to a tropical depression and stay at that strength at least through this weekend. You can see Philippe's latest forecast track below.

Tracking the Tropics: Maria Riding Solo in Otherwise Quiet Tropical Waters

Tropical Storm Maria is the only active storm in the tropics right now while the rest of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific waters are fairly quiet.

We still have a ways to go before the end of Hurricane Season 2011, so this quiet period is not expected to last long. There should still be several more storms this hurricane season.

As of 8AM EST Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Maria has top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving to the North-Northwest at around five miles per hour. Maria is still expected to remain offshore as you see below and be out of the US picture by this weekend.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda. Residents of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should expect a general two to four inches of rain through this evening with isolated higher amounts likely.

We could see Maria strengthen a little over the next two days.

That's all the tropics have to offer for now! Stay tuned for your latest updates.

Tracking the Tropics: Katia Sails Away, TS Maria's Next Move, Plus Nate Eyes Mexico!

Well, here we are. In the height of hurricane season. And we can sure tell that it's an active time of year. Just take a look at the map above. We currently have three active storms between the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. 

These Atlantic and Gulf storms are the ones we typically watch out for as they have a much better shot of impacting weather here in the United States as opposed to any storms that develop in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. 

Speaking of the Pacific, I'll quickly mention that the Eastern Pacific Ocean remains clear of any tropical cyclones, you can see the map below from the National Hurricane Center for added proof! 

So, from Katia to Maria to Nate there's a lot going on and now is my time to explain to you whether or not the US will be threatened by these storms. Let's get started!

Tracking the Tropics: Irene Recovery Continues, But All Eyes Turn Towards Katia...and Lee?

East Setauket, NY supermarket
still without water AFTER Irene
8/29/2011

Stores ran out of the essentials. Trees toppled. Power lines fell. Beaches eroded. All thanks to Irene. And she could have been even stronger. Now, it's time to continue gassing up the chainsaws and cleaning up the damage while simultaneously keeping an eye on what storm could be next.

Hurricane Irene spared many her full force, but left many others under water or without power, and in some cases, especially in North Carolina, left families without a home to come back to. And hundreds of thousands of people in several East coast states remain without power all thanks to Hurricane Irene.

Irene could have been a much stronger storm, but even as a category two storm over the Carolinas and then a category one/tropical storm over the New York tri-state area Irene caused extensive damage, even leaving roughly 25% of Long Island in New York without power.

East Setauket, NY street blocked by toppled tree - Hurricane Irene - 8/28/2011| Photo by Matt Hammer

Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Irene Dips to Cat. 1, But Will Restrengthen

Hurricane Irene, once a category two hurricane, has temporarily weakened slightly to a category one storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. There is concern for the East coast of the United States to be impacted significantly by Irene later this week and well into the upcoming weekend. 

Here's the latest on Hurricane Irene as of 5PM EST this evening:

Hurricane Irene: 5PM EST Update

Top Winds: 90 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 976mb

Moving WNW @ 9 mph

Located ~50 mi SSW Grand Turk Island

There was some SSW wind shear which allowed Irene to weaken just a bit today. That being said, the downgrade to a Category 1 Hurricane this evening is no surprise. However, Irene is headed towards prime waters for strengthening. So, expect Irene to rapidly begin to restrengthen over the next 48 hours. 

Current watches and warnings include:

A Hurricane Warning for Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern, Central and Northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the North Coast of Haiti.

Hurricane force winds only stretch outward for 40 miles, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend to around 205 miles from the storm's center. 

Irene is forecast to become a Category 3 storm as early as Thursday morning. Portions of South Carolina and North Carolina will start to see increased surf and dangerous rip currents pick up over the next couple of days. The center of Irene is forecast to be just offshore the North Carolina coast by Saturday afternoon.

Tropical Update: Emily Fizzles, But Will the Storm Make a Comeback?

Tropical Storm Emily is no longer a named storm. Emily weakened considerably as it interacted with Hispaniola. The remnants of the once tropical storm are now moving northwest at 16 miles per hour and the area of low pressure has top winds of around 35 miles per hour.

Just because the storm weakened does not mean that the rainfall has let up. In fact, parts of Hispaniola will still see anywhere from six to 12 inches of rain when all is said and done.

So, what happens with Emily's remnants from here?


The latest radar imagery of this area of low pressure in the Atlantic indicates the chance for the low wanting to split in two and head off in separate directions. This will have to be monitored closely. If this were to happen, one piece would head towards the Gulf of Mexico and the other piece would continue on the current northwest track of the low. Some restrengthening isn't out of the question just yet either. That's option one.

Option two. Emily's remnants would continue on a northwest track as a whole and begin to veer off into the Atlantic over the next 48 hours or so. Still, some minor restrengthening is possible within this time frame once the area of low pressure passes land and reaches the Atlantic again.

The image below shows what computer models think will happen with these remnants. You can see both possibilities discusses above are visible, while the more likely scenario is option two.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Emily to Reach Bahamas Tomorrow, Hurricane Eugene Starts Weakening in Pacific

Tropical Storm Emily still has top winds of 50 miles per hour, according to the 11pm update from the National Hurricane Center Wednesday night. The storm is crawling West at five miles per hour.

Emily will pick up speed throughout the next 24 hours and is expected to reach the Bahamas by Friday.

Currently, Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Francis Viejo westward to the northern border with Haiti, Haiti, southeastern and central Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, Guantanamo and Holguin provinces in Eastern Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Watch is up for the northwestern Bahamas. These areas can expect anywhere from six to 12 inches of rainfall over the next 48 hours, with locally higher amounts to near 20 inches.

You can see Tropical Storm Emily's projected path below. The storm may have an impact on southeastern Florida this weekend before taking a turn to the northeast and heading out into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Southern Florida residents should monitor their forecasts closely over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Update: Emily Eyes Caribbean, Pacific Hurricane Eugene Poses No Threat

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic and Haiti as Tropical Storm Emily, the fifth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, continues to churn in the Caribbean. The good news is, it does not look likely that Emily will strengthen enough to be upgraded to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Watches are posted for the US Virgin Islands and the Southeast Bahamas.

As of 5PM EDT, Emily had top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving West at 14 miles per hour and is currently centered less than 185 miles South-Southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Residents of the areas under Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches should be prepared for potentially life-threatening rainfall, storm surges up to around two feet, damaging tropical storm force sustained winds and wind gusts over 60 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm conditions will take place in Puerto Rico tonight, and the storm could produce up to six inches of rain, with locally higher amounts in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti by the time Emily passes through by Thursday.

Over the next two days, Emily is projected to make a turn to the Northwest. The storm will pass over Hispaniola by late tomorrow and will head into the Bahamas Thursday. 

Right now, it does not look like Emily poses a threat to the US mainland; however, this is something that will need to be watched closely, as there is the chance this could change. At this time, Emily should move out to sea after crossing the Bahamas late this week.