Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Ophelia Stays Well Offshore, Philippe Continues to Head West

Ophelia has become a hurricane over the Atlantic, but thankfully she continues to not be a problem for the US mainland. Hurricane Ophelia will stay well offshore and you can see her latest track as issued by the National Hurricane Center below.

Tropical Storm Philippe continues to move to the Northwest at around 13 miles per hour. Philippe's latest track takes the storm well South of Bermuda by early next week as the storm takes a turn towards the South-Southwest. I'll continue to monitor this storm and bring you the latest updates as needed.

Meanwhile, over the Eastern Pacific waters, Hilary has finally weakened to a tropical storm, but does not pose any threat to land.

Tracking the Tropics: Ophelia Stays Over Ocean, Philippe Heads West

There still has not been too much concern for the US mainland with regards to tropical cyclones over the past few weeks and it looks like it'll stay that way at least for the next several days. 

Let's go over the latest on Ophelia and Philippe.

As of 11AM EST this morning, Tropical Storm Ophelia has top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving to the North-Northwest at around three miles per hour. Ophelia poses no threat to land until crossing Bermuda this weekend as you can see by the latest projected path from the National Hurricane Center below.

Philippe is the storm we should keep a closer eye on. As of 11AM EST this morning, Philippe is a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. This storm is moving to the West-Northwest at 12 miles per hour and is expected to take a more Westward turn by this weekend. 

The good news about Philippe; however, is that I do expect this storm to weaken back to a tropical depression and stay at that strength at least through this weekend. You can see Philippe's latest forecast track below.

Tracking the Tropics: Maria Riding Solo in Otherwise Quiet Tropical Waters

Tropical Storm Maria is the only active storm in the tropics right now while the rest of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific waters are fairly quiet.

We still have a ways to go before the end of Hurricane Season 2011, so this quiet period is not expected to last long. There should still be several more storms this hurricane season.

As of 8AM EST Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Maria has top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving to the North-Northwest at around five miles per hour. Maria is still expected to remain offshore as you see below and be out of the US picture by this weekend.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda. Residents of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should expect a general two to four inches of rain through this evening with isolated higher amounts likely.

We could see Maria strengthen a little over the next two days.

That's all the tropics have to offer for now! Stay tuned for your latest updates.

Tracking the Tropics: Katia Sails Away, TS Maria's Next Move, Plus Nate Eyes Mexico!

Well, here we are. In the height of hurricane season. And we can sure tell that it's an active time of year. Just take a look at the map above. We currently have three active storms between the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. 

These Atlantic and Gulf storms are the ones we typically watch out for as they have a much better shot of impacting weather here in the United States as opposed to any storms that develop in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. 

Speaking of the Pacific, I'll quickly mention that the Eastern Pacific Ocean remains clear of any tropical cyclones, you can see the map below from the National Hurricane Center for added proof! 

So, from Katia to Maria to Nate there's a lot going on and now is my time to explain to you whether or not the US will be threatened by these storms. Let's get started!

Tracking the Tropics: Katia, Lee-To-Be, And More...

TS Katia | C/o wunderground.com

From Katia to soon-to-be Lee to another tropical disturbance in the open Atlantic, the tropics are active and we're still far from the end of hurricane season.

But, do we have to be concerned about any of these storms impacting the US mainland? Let's start with Katia!

Atlantic Update:
As of 11PM EST Thursday night, Katia has top winds of 70 miles per hour, making it a tropical storm. Katia is now moving to the WNW at around 16 miles per hour. She's expected to regain strength beginning tomorrow and could become a major hurricane over the next several days.

Originally, it looked like Katia would stay well away from the US mainland, but I've kept a close eye on the storm as I wasn't completely buying that solution just yet. And based off the latest projected track of Katia, which you can see below, we still need to keep watching this storm closely as there is SOME potential for US East Coast impact later next week.

Although, it's more likely that Katia would be steered away from the East Coast, but this storm will need to be monitored closely.

Also in the Atlantic is an area of low pressure that has a decent shot and getting a little more organized, which would turn it into a tropical depression and potentially Tropical Storm Maria. This area of concern is indicated by a "1" on the map below:

Tracking the Tropics: Irene Recovery Continues, But All Eyes Turn Towards Katia...and Lee?

East Setauket, NY supermarket
still without water AFTER Irene
8/29/2011

Stores ran out of the essentials. Trees toppled. Power lines fell. Beaches eroded. All thanks to Irene. And she could have been even stronger. Now, it's time to continue gassing up the chainsaws and cleaning up the damage while simultaneously keeping an eye on what storm could be next.

Hurricane Irene spared many her full force, but left many others under water or without power, and in some cases, especially in North Carolina, left families without a home to come back to. And hundreds of thousands of people in several East coast states remain without power all thanks to Hurricane Irene.

Irene could have been a much stronger storm, but even as a category two storm over the Carolinas and then a category one/tropical storm over the New York tri-state area Irene caused extensive damage, even leaving roughly 25% of Long Island in New York without power.

East Setauket, NY street blocked by toppled tree - Hurricane Irene - 8/28/2011| Photo by Matt Hammer

Tracking the Tropics: Irene Weakens to Cat. 2, Still on Track for East Coast Impact

Hurricane Irene weakened slightly overnight and through the first half of Friday as of 2PM EST Friday. Irene continues to churn to the North eyeing the North Carolina coast. Watches and warnings are posted for parts of the US East coast. See below for the latest!

Here's the latest information on Hurricane Irene as of 2PM EST Friday:

Hurricane Irene: 2PM EST Update

Top Winds: 100 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 951mb

Moving North @ 14 mph

Located: ~300mi SSW Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

While it would have made sense for Irene to strengthen overnight, that is not what happened. Irene lost a little strength, but remains a potent category two storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Irene is expected to hit Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Saturday morning and then begin to affect the mid-Atlantic states including the New York tri-state area late Saturday into Sunday.

Current watches and warnings include:

A Hurricane Warning for much of the North Carolina coast Northward through Sandy Hook, New Jersey.

A Hurricane Watch for North of Sandy Hook, New Jersey through the mouth of the Merrimack River, Massachusetts. This includes New York City, Long Island, Block Island, Boston, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet.

Hurricane force winds stretch outward for 90 miles, but Tropical Storm force winds extend about 290 miles.

Tracking the Tropics: Category 3 Irene Prompts East Coast Watches & Warnings

As of 8PM EST Thursday, Hurricane Irene continued to churn to the North-Northwestward at Category 3 strength. Watches and warnings are already being posted for parts of the US East coast. See below for the latest!

Here's the latest information on Hurricane Irene as of 8PM EST Thursday evening:

Hurricane Irene: 8PM EST Update

Top Winds: 115 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 946mb

Moving NNW @ 14 mph

Located: ~530mi SSW Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

Conditions are prime for Irene to strengthen somewhat tonight. A turn to the Northward is expected sometime tomorrow. Irene is expected to hit Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Saturday afternoon and then begin to affect the New York tri-state area late Saturday into Sunday.

 

Current watches and warnings include:

A Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas and much of the North Carolina coast.

A Hurricane Watch for the Virginia/North Carolina border North through Sandy Hook, New Jersey.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet.

A Tropical Storm Watch for Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point Northward.
Hurricane force winds stretch outward for 80 miles, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend about 290 miles.

Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Irene Remains at Cat. 3 Strength, Turns North-Northwest

As of 11AM EST Thursday, Hurricane Irene remains a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Irene continues to batter the Northwest Bahamas today and then eyes the East coast of the United States. The East coast of Florida is experiencing some effects from Irene right now.

Here's the latest on Hurricane Irene as of 11AM EST Thursday morning:

Hurricane Irene: 11AM EST Update

Top Winds: 115 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 951mb

Moving NNW @ 13 mph

Location: Currently Approaching Abaco Island

There is still the possibility for Irene to strengthen today and tonight. 

Current watches and warnings include:

A Hurricane Warning for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch for the North Carolina coast.

A Tropical Storm Watch for the South Carolina coast North of Edisto Beach.

The mid-Atlantic states may very well see a Hurricane Watch posted later today.

Hurricane force winds stretch outward for 70 miles, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend to around 290 miles from the storm's center. 

Portions of South Carolina and North Carolina will continue to see increased surf and dangerous rip currents from Irene as the storm nears. The center of Irene is forecast to now be over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina by midday Saturday.

Tracking The Tropics: Hurricane Irene Regains Cat. 2 Strength as Bahamas Battering Nears

Hurricane Irene has regained its Category 2 storm status on the Saffir-Simpson scale as of 2AM EST Wednesday. There is still significant concern for the East coast of the United States to be impacted significantly by Irene later this week and well into the upcoming weekend. Today, Irene impacts the Bahamas. 

Here's the latest on Hurricane Irene as of 2AM EST Wednesday morning, which has brought Irene's track further West:

Hurricane Irene: 2AM EST Update

Top Winds: 100 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 966mb

Moving WNW @ 9 mph

Located ~400mi SE Nassau, Bahamas; 
~975mi S Cape Hatteras, NC

Irene is now headed towards prime waters for strengthening. Expect Irene to rapidly begin to restrengthen today and tomorrow. 

Current watches and warnings include:

A Hurricane Warning for Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern, Central and Northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the North Coast of Haiti.

Hurricane force winds still only stretch outward for 40 miles, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend to around 205 miles from the storm's center. 

Irene is forecast to become a Category 3 storm. Portions of South Carolina and North Carolina will start to see increased surf and dangerous rip currents from Irene. The center of Irene is forecast to now be over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina by Saturday evening.

Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Irene Dips to Cat. 1, But Will Restrengthen

Hurricane Irene, once a category two hurricane, has temporarily weakened slightly to a category one storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. There is concern for the East coast of the United States to be impacted significantly by Irene later this week and well into the upcoming weekend. 

Here's the latest on Hurricane Irene as of 5PM EST this evening:

Hurricane Irene: 5PM EST Update

Top Winds: 90 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 976mb

Moving WNW @ 9 mph

Located ~50 mi SSW Grand Turk Island

There was some SSW wind shear which allowed Irene to weaken just a bit today. That being said, the downgrade to a Category 1 Hurricane this evening is no surprise. However, Irene is headed towards prime waters for strengthening. So, expect Irene to rapidly begin to restrengthen over the next 48 hours. 

Current watches and warnings include:

A Hurricane Warning for Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern, Central and Northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the North Coast of Haiti.

Hurricane force winds only stretch outward for 40 miles, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend to around 205 miles from the storm's center. 

Irene is forecast to become a Category 3 storm as early as Thursday morning. Portions of South Carolina and North Carolina will start to see increased surf and dangerous rip currents pick up over the next couple of days. The center of Irene is forecast to be just offshore the North Carolina coast by Saturday afternoon.

Tropical Update: Emily's Next Moves, Plus Any Action in the Pacific?

While the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily have reorganized into a tropical depression, there's no need to worry here along the eastern seaboard of the United States. This system will most likely strengthen a little more back into a tropical storm at some time today. However, Emily is expected to take a turn to the northeast, which would allow the storm to head out to sea and no longer impact weather near the US.

As of 11pm Saturday night, Tropical Depression Emily had top winds of 35 miles per hour and was moving north at 8 miles per hour with a minimum pressure of 1011 millibars.

The storm is providing southeast Florida with some rain squalls and gusty winds, while mainly affecting the northeast Bahamas. An additional one to three inches of rain is expected in this area before all is said and done later on today.

As mentioned, Emily will more than likely restrengthen into a tropical storm Sunday. The storm is also expected to pick up speed and take a turn to the northeast. You can see the projected track below. Some rough surf can be expected from eastern Florida shores north through North Carolina through Monday. 

If any updates to the storm track or strength are needed, you will find them here or on Facebook and Twitter throughout the day.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific waters are very quiet. There's one wave of low pressure, but there is next to no chance of tropical development with this system over the next 48 hours.

Tropical Update: Emily Fizzles, But Will the Storm Make a Comeback?

Tropical Storm Emily is no longer a named storm. Emily weakened considerably as it interacted with Hispaniola. The remnants of the once tropical storm are now moving northwest at 16 miles per hour and the area of low pressure has top winds of around 35 miles per hour.

Just because the storm weakened does not mean that the rainfall has let up. In fact, parts of Hispaniola will still see anywhere from six to 12 inches of rain when all is said and done.

So, what happens with Emily's remnants from here?


The latest radar imagery of this area of low pressure in the Atlantic indicates the chance for the low wanting to split in two and head off in separate directions. This will have to be monitored closely. If this were to happen, one piece would head towards the Gulf of Mexico and the other piece would continue on the current northwest track of the low. Some restrengthening isn't out of the question just yet either. That's option one.

Option two. Emily's remnants would continue on a northwest track as a whole and begin to veer off into the Atlantic over the next 48 hours or so. Still, some minor restrengthening is possible within this time frame once the area of low pressure passes land and reaches the Atlantic again.

The image below shows what computer models think will happen with these remnants. You can see both possibilities discusses above are visible, while the more likely scenario is option two.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Emily to Reach Bahamas Tomorrow, Hurricane Eugene Starts Weakening in Pacific

Tropical Storm Emily still has top winds of 50 miles per hour, according to the 11pm update from the National Hurricane Center Wednesday night. The storm is crawling West at five miles per hour.

Emily will pick up speed throughout the next 24 hours and is expected to reach the Bahamas by Friday.

Currently, Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Francis Viejo westward to the northern border with Haiti, Haiti, southeastern and central Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, Guantanamo and Holguin provinces in Eastern Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Watch is up for the northwestern Bahamas. These areas can expect anywhere from six to 12 inches of rainfall over the next 48 hours, with locally higher amounts to near 20 inches.

You can see Tropical Storm Emily's projected path below. The storm may have an impact on southeastern Florida this weekend before taking a turn to the northeast and heading out into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Southern Florida residents should monitor their forecasts closely over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Update: Emily Eyes Caribbean, Pacific Hurricane Eugene Poses No Threat

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic and Haiti as Tropical Storm Emily, the fifth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, continues to churn in the Caribbean. The good news is, it does not look likely that Emily will strengthen enough to be upgraded to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Watches are posted for the US Virgin Islands and the Southeast Bahamas.

As of 5PM EDT, Emily had top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving West at 14 miles per hour and is currently centered less than 185 miles South-Southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Residents of the areas under Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches should be prepared for potentially life-threatening rainfall, storm surges up to around two feet, damaging tropical storm force sustained winds and wind gusts over 60 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm conditions will take place in Puerto Rico tonight, and the storm could produce up to six inches of rain, with locally higher amounts in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti by the time Emily passes through by Thursday.

Over the next two days, Emily is projected to make a turn to the Northwest. The storm will pass over Hispaniola by late tomorrow and will head into the Bahamas Thursday. 

Right now, it does not look like Emily poses a threat to the US mainland; however, this is something that will need to be watched closely, as there is the chance this could change. At this time, Emily should move out to sea after crossing the Bahamas late this week.