For years, people have checked the Farmers' Almanac for long-range weather predictions.
You may think the almanac is useful if you're a farmer looking to get a feel for how your crops might do for the season, a newly-engaged couple trying to plan your wedding day around the weather or you may be thinking you can be one step, or several months, ahead of the hundreds of meteorologists across the country. Let me remind you that those hundreds of meteorologists only work on predicting the next seven days accurately. So, why not pick up this year's Farmers' Almanac? After all, it does predict the weather for the next several months!
Not so fast.
Before I go any further, for those of you who do not know of the Farmer's Almanac, let's briefly go over what it is and its history. To make this confusing, there are actually two types of published almanacs. The Farmers' Almanac and The Old Farmers' Almanac.
The Farmers' Almanac has become a household name here in the United States. The Farmers' Almanac is published once a year here in the United States. Its first issue was in 1818 and published in Morristown, New Jersey. Since, the publication moved to Lewiston, Maine and is published by the Almanac Publishing Company. You may associate long-range weather prediction with the Farmers' Almanac, but the almanac is focused on more than just that. It also gives advice on gardening, fishing and cooking and also includes trivia and humor.
Similarly, The Old Farmers' Almanac covers the same topics as the Farmers' Almanac, but here's the difference. It's been published since 1792, which makes it the oldest continuously published periodical in North America.
So, can you really trust the weather predictions you read in either almanac? Only with a grain of salt.
And here's why.
For starters, both The Old Farmers' Almanac and The Farmers' Almanac are very secretive about how exactly they make their long range predictions. The forecaster of The Farmers' Almanac goes by the alias, "Caleb Weatherbee." According to the almanac's website,
"Farmers’ Almanac long-range weather forecasts are calculated by Caleb Weatherbee who uses a proprietary formula developed by Farmers' Almanac founder David Young. This formula considers many factors, such as sunspots, moon phases, and other astronomical and atmospheric factors and conditions. Since 1818, this carefully guarded formula has been passed along from calculator to calculator and has never been revealed."
What this says to me is that the Farmers' Almanac is using some secretive mathematical formula developed close to 200 years ago that encompasses a vague list of variables. And OK, sunspots and moon phases. What about them?! At least give us [the American public and weather enthusiasts] some scientific proof that your method works, Weatherbee. The Old Farmers' Almanac follows a secret formula as well, said to be kept locked up in a black tin box at The Old Farmers' Almanac headquarters in Dublin, New Hampshire.
The Farmers' Almanac calculates its long-range forecast for each annual issue up to a couple years in advance. The Old Farmers' Almanac up to 18 months in advance. This is crossing into something called "climatology" or weather conditions averaged over a long period of time. I would not be so critical of the almanacs if what they predicted was just climate forecasts. This would be a general, "Oh, it looks like this summer may be a bit warmer than previous summers." That sort of thing.
While both almanacs do have these types of forecasts, this is not the detail at which they stop. They go month by month. Week by week. Nearly day by day. Again, predicting its weather forecasts months to years in advance using a secret method and a weather caster who does not publicly release his identity. I use the term "weather caster" and not meteorologist or climatologist here because we simply do not know who these people are and what their qualifications are. Not even to mention my personal belief that these forecasts are made from the roll of a die.
As an aspiring broadcast meteorologist, it's disheartening to me that someone like Caleb Weatherbee would not back up their forecast. For me, when I am confident in a forecast, I will tell you exactly why I believe in it so confidently and how I got to that conclusion.
Additionally, it is impossible to accurately predict the weather more than seven or so days out. Long-range computer models with the most advanced algorithms and mathematical formulas even struggle, sometimes, with storms that are less than twenty-four hours away! Yet, somehow, these almanacs have the "magic formula."
To make climatological generalizations is one thing, but a weather forecast down to the week or even day years in advance? To me, that's just a nice selling point to make some money on your publication.
One thing I will commend at least the website of The Farmers' Almanac on, is this:
"Although many longtime Almanac followers claim that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate, it should be noted that weather forecasting still remains an inexact science. Therefore, our forecasts may sometimes be imperfect. If you are planning an outdoor event, we recommend that you also check forecasts from local sources."
The Old Farmers' Almanac claims a similar 80% accuracy rating as well.
That's the smartest thing The Farmers' Almanac has said about their weather prediction.
What's also interesting is that there's been many times the almanacs predictions have been nearly opposite of those from the National Weather Service. Here's a brief news story on the accuracy of the almanacs predictions. Personally, I would go into more detail than this story does, had I completed a video piece myself, which I may just decide to do in the future. This story also focuses on the general seasonal predictions by region and not the week to week predictions, but it is still worth a look.
The way the farmers' almanacs word their long-range forecasts is very vague and these forecasts may not be much more accurate than a guess. I would love to be proven wrong by either publication, but I simply just do not see how you can predict a forecast for a certain week years in advance.
Maybe the almanacs are onto something here and know something that all of the meteorologists around the world have yet to figure out.
Seems like a stretch to me!
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