We all know the weather is constantly changing. There's likely to be a few minor changes to a seven day forecast, but just take a glance at how it looks now!
The tropics remain quiet in terms of named storms. There are currently no named systems in either the Eastern Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic. Hurricane season will begin to wind down over the next few weeks, but we can still see a few systems spawn up during that time.
If any storms do develop, you can see them on the maps below, both of which can be found at any time by hovering your mouse over "Current Conditions" and selecting one of the "Tropics" maps.
Ophelia has become a hurricane over the Atlantic, but thankfully she continues to not be a problem for the US mainland. Hurricane Ophelia will stay well offshore and you can see her latest track as issued by the National Hurricane Center below.
Tropical Storm Philippe continues to move to the Northwest at around 13 miles per hour. Philippe's latest track takes the storm well South of Bermuda by early next week as the storm takes a turn towards the South-Southwest. I'll continue to monitor this storm and bring you the latest updates as needed.
Meanwhile, over the Eastern Pacific waters, Hilary has finally weakened to a tropical storm, but does not pose any threat to land.
There still has not been too much concern for the US mainland with regards to tropical cyclones over the past few weeks and it looks like it'll stay that way at least for the next several days.
Let's go over the latest on Ophelia and Philippe.
As of 11AM EST this morning, Tropical Storm Ophelia has top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving to the North-Northwest at around three miles per hour. Ophelia poses no threat to land until crossing Bermuda this weekend as you can see by the latest projected path from the National Hurricane Center below.
Philippe is the storm we should keep a closer eye on. As of 11AM EST this morning, Philippe is a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. This storm is moving to the West-Northwest at 12 miles per hour and is expected to take a more Westward turn by this weekend.
The good news about Philippe; however, is that I do expect this storm to weaken back to a tropical depression and stay at that strength at least through this weekend. You can see Philippe's latest forecast track below.
The tropics still remain not as busy as they could be right now, with only one active storm in the Atlantic and one over the Eastern Pacific waters.
Remember, the 2011 Hurricane Season ends November, so there is still plenty of time for more storms to develop -- let's just hope they stay away from land!
In the Atlantic right now we have Tropical Storm Ophelia. Ophelia has top winds at 65 miles per hour as of 5AM Thursday morning, moving to the West at 14 miles per hour. She's expected to remain a tropical storm through Tuesday even though she wouldn't have to strengthen much more to be classified as a hurricane. The reason Ophelia likely won't reach hurricane status over the next several days is due to strong upper level winds in the atmosphere that will actually help to weaken the storm a bit.
Tropical storm winds extend out to around 230 miles. You can see Ophelia's latest projected path as issued by the National Hurricane Center below.
Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilary is close to becoming a hurricane with maximum winds at 70 miles per hour.
Currently, a tropical storm warning is in effect for Lagunas De Chacahua Mexico Westward to Punta San Telmo and a tropical storm watch is in effect for West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.
Hilary should strengthen to a hurricane today and could be a major hurricane by this weekend. You can see Hilary's latest track below.
The tropics remain quiet for the time being. Remember, the 2011 Hurricane Season does not end until November, so there is still plenty of time for storms to develop over the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific waters.
The only two areas to watch are two waves that recently came off the coast of Africa. The National Hurricane Center currently has both of these waves, circled in the photo to the left, marked with a low probability for tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. Beyond this time frame, anywhere from nothing to a lot can happen with these waves.
As always, I'll keep one eye on that and another on your local tri-state area forecast and other national weather headlines! Wish I had three eyes! :)
Hopefully everyone is enjoying the unofficial start of fall! I just wish the nights wouldn't get so cool already here on Long Island!
Tropical Storm Maria is the only active storm in the tropics right now while the rest of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific waters remain quiet.
We still have awhile before the end of Hurricane Season 2011, so this quiet period is not expected to last long. There should still be several more storms this hurricane season.
As of 2PM EST Wednesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Maria has top winds of 60 miles per hour, moving to the North at around 14 miles per hour. Maria will remain offshore as you see below and be out of the picture by this weekend.
That's all the tropics have to offer for now! Stay tuned for your latest updates.
Tropical Storm Maria is the only active storm in the tropics right now while the rest of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific waters are fairly quiet.
We still have a ways to go before the end of Hurricane Season 2011, so this quiet period is not expected to last long. There should still be several more storms this hurricane season.
As of 8AM EST Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Maria has top winds of 50 miles per hour, moving to the North-Northwest at around five miles per hour. Maria is still expected to remain offshore as you see below and be out of the US picture by this weekend.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda. Residents of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should expect a general two to four inches of rain through this evening with isolated higher amounts likely.
We could see Maria strengthen a little over the next two days.
That's all the tropics have to offer for now! Stay tuned for your latest updates.
As of 10PM EST Sunday night, Tropical Storm Maria was the lone tropical system active in the Atlantic.
As of 11PM EST, the National Hurricane has Maria with top winds of 60 miles per hour, moving West-Northwest at 10 miles per hour. You can see her fairly disorganized satellite picture below.
Satellite View of Tropical Storm Maria | Courtesy of Intellicast.com
Maria is not expected to impact weather in the United States. She will likely take a turn to the North early enough to remain an offshore storm. You can see Maria's latest track below:
Well, here we are. In the height of hurricane season. And we can sure tell that it's an active time of year. Just take a look at the map above. We currently have three active storms between the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.
These Atlantic and Gulf storms are the ones we typically watch out for as they have a much better shot of impacting weather here in the United States as opposed to any storms that develop in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Speaking of the Pacific, I'll quickly mention that the Eastern Pacific Ocean remains clear of any tropical cyclones, you can see the map below from the National Hurricane Center for added proof! Just two waves with limited chances of development at this time.
So, from Katia to Maria to Nate there's a lot going on and now is my time to explain to you whether or not the US will be threatened by these storms. Let's get started!
Well, here we are. In the height of hurricane season. And we can sure tell that it's an active time of year. Just take a look at the map above. We currently have three active storms between the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.
These Atlantic and Gulf storms are the ones we typically watch out for as they have a much better shot of impacting weather here in the United States as opposed to any storms that develop in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Speaking of the Pacific, I'll quickly mention that the Eastern Pacific Ocean remains clear of any tropical cyclones, you can see the map below from the National Hurricane Center for added proof!
So, from Katia to Maria to Nate there's a lot going on and now is my time to explain to you whether or not the US will be threatened by these storms. Let's get started!
As of 11PM EST, Hurricane Katia has top winds of 135mph, making Katia a category four storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. She has the potential to strengthen even a little further over the next day. The good news is that it looks like Katia will swing out to sea and only provide the East coast of the United States with large waves and rip currents Thursday into Friday. That being said, East coast waters will be of the deadly and extremely dangerous variety. Those rip currents could be deadly and waves could be increased by as much as 8 to 15 feet.
As of 11AM EST, Hurricane Katia is a category two storm with top winds of 110mph, expected to strengthen further over the next day or two. The good news is that it looks like Katia will swing out to sea and only provide the East coast of the United States with large waves and rip currents later this week.
From Katia to soon-to-be Lee to another tropical disturbance in the open Atlantic, the tropics are active and we're still far from the end of hurricane season.
But, do we have to be concerned about any of these storms impacting the US mainland? Let's start with Katia!
Atlantic Update:
As of 11PM EST Thursday night, Katia has top winds of 70 miles per hour, making it a tropical storm. Katia is now moving to the WNW at around 16 miles per hour. She's expected to regain strength beginning tomorrow and could become a major hurricane over the next several days.
Originally, it looked like Katia would stay well away from the US mainland, but I've kept a close eye on the storm as I wasn't completely buying that solution just yet. And based off the latest projected track of Katia, which you can see below, we still need to keep watching this storm closely as there is SOME potential for US East Coast impact later next week.
Although, it's more likely that Katia would be steered away from the East Coast, but this storm will need to be monitored closely.
Also in the Atlantic is an area of low pressure that has a decent shot and getting a little more organized, which would turn it into a tropical depression and potentially Tropical Storm Maria. This area of concern is indicated by a "1" on the map below:
East Setauket, NY supermarket
still without water AFTER Irene
8/29/2011
Stores ran out of the essentials. Trees toppled. Power lines fell. Beaches eroded. All thanks to Irene. And she could have been even stronger. Now, it's time to continue gassing up the chainsaws and cleaning up the damage while simultaneously keeping an eye on what storm could be next.
Hurricane Irene spared many her full force, but left many others under water or without power, and in some cases, especially in North Carolina, left families without a home to come back to. And hundreds of thousands of people in several East coast states remain without power all thanks to Hurricane Irene.
Irene could have been a much stronger storm, but even as a category two storm over the Carolinas and then a category one/tropical storm over the New York tri-state area Irene caused extensive damage, even leaving roughly 25% of Long Island in New York without power.
East Setauket, NY street blocked by toppled tree - Hurricane Irene - 8/28/2011| Photo by Matt Hammer
Hurricane Irene weakened slightly overnight and through the first half of Friday as of 2PM EST Friday. Irene continues to churn to the North eyeing the North Carolina coast. Watches and warnings are posted for parts of the US East coast. See below for the latest!
Here's the latest information on Hurricane Irene as of 2PM EST Friday:
Hurricane Irene: 2PM EST Update
Top Winds: 100 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 951mb
Moving North @ 14 mph
Located: ~300mi SSW Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
While it would have made sense for Irene to strengthen overnight, that is not what happened. Irene lost a little strength, but remains a potent category two storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Irene is expected to hit Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Saturday morning and then begin to affect the mid-Atlantic states including the New York tri-state area late Saturday into Sunday.
Current watches and warnings include:
A Hurricane Warning for much of the North Carolina coast Northward through Sandy Hook, New Jersey.
A Hurricane Watch for North of Sandy Hook, New Jersey through the mouth of the Merrimack River, Massachusetts. This includes New York City, Long Island, Block Island, Boston, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet.
Hurricane force winds stretch outward for 90 miles, but Tropical Storm force winds extend about 290 miles.
As of 8PM EST Thursday, Hurricane Irene continued to churn to the North-Northwestward at Category 3 strength. Watches and warnings are already being posted for parts of the US East coast. See below for the latest!
Here's the latest information on Hurricane Irene as of 8PM EST Thursday evening:
Hurricane Irene: 8PM EST Update
Top Winds: 115 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 946mb
Moving NNW @ 14 mph
Located: ~530mi SSW Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Conditions are prime for Irene to strengthen somewhat tonight. A turn to the Northward is expected sometime tomorrow. Irene is expected to hit Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Saturday afternoon and then begin to affect the New York tri-state area late Saturday into Sunday.
Current watches and warnings include:
A Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas and much of the North Carolina coast.
A Hurricane Watch for the Virginia/North Carolina border North through Sandy Hook, New Jersey.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet.
A Tropical Storm Watch for Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point Northward.
Hurricane force winds stretch outward for 80 miles, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend about 290 miles.
As of 11AM EST Thursday, Hurricane Irene remains a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Irene continues to batter the Northwest Bahamas today and then eyes the East coast of the United States. The East coast of Florida is experiencing some effects from Irene right now.
Here's the latest on Hurricane Irene as of 11AM EST Thursday morning:
Hurricane Irene: 11AM EST Update
Top Winds: 115 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 951mb
Moving NNW @ 13 mph
Location: Currently Approaching Abaco Island
There is still the possibility for Irene to strengthen today and tonight.
Current watches and warnings include:
A Hurricane Warning for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Watch for the North Carolina coast.
A Tropical Storm Watch for the South Carolina coast North of Edisto Beach.
The mid-Atlantic states may very well see a Hurricane Watch posted later today.
Hurricane force winds stretch outward for 70 miles, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend to around 290 miles from the storm's center.
Portions of South Carolina and North Carolina will continue to see increased surf and dangerous rip currents from Irene as the storm nears. The center of Irene is forecast to now be over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina by midday Saturday.
Hurricane Irene strengthened into a Category 3 storm Wednesday morning. There is still significant concern for the East coast of the United States to be impacted by Irene. Today, Irene continues its trek across the Bahamas.
Here's the latest on Hurricane Irene as of 2PM EST Wednesday. Irene has strengthened even more since the 11AM EST update from the National Hurricane Center:
Hurricane Irene: 2PM EST Update
Top Winds: 120 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 954mb
Moving NW @ 12 mph
Located ~65mi SE Long Island, Bahamas; ~250mi SE Nassau, Bahamas
Current watches and warnings include:
A Hurricane Warning for Southeastern, Central and Northwestern Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Hurricane force winds stretch outward for 50 miles now, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend to around 205 miles from the storm's center.
Irene is now forecast to become a Category 4 storm by Thursday. US residents up and down the East coast should monitor Irene very closely. An updated forecast track is posted after the break.
Hurricane Irene has regained its Category 2 storm status on the Saffir-Simpson scale as of 2AM EST Wednesday. There is still significant concern for the East coast of the United States to be impacted significantly by Irene later this week and well into the upcoming weekend. Today, Irene impacts the Bahamas.
Here's the latest on Hurricane Irene as of 2AM EST Wednesday morning, which has brought Irene's track further West:
Hurricane Irene: 2AM EST Update
Top Winds: 100 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 966mb
Moving WNW @ 9 mph
Located ~400mi SE Nassau, Bahamas; ~975mi S Cape Hatteras, NC
Irene is now headed towards prime waters for strengthening. Expect Irene to rapidly begin to restrengthen today and tomorrow.
Current watches and warnings include:
A Hurricane Warning for Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern, Central and Northwestern Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the North Coast of Haiti.
Hurricane force winds still only stretch outward for 40 miles, but Tropical Storm Force winds extend to around 205 miles from the storm's center.
Irene is forecast to become a Category 3 storm. Portions of South Carolina and North Carolina will start to see increased surf and dangerous rip currents from Irene. The center of Irene is forecast to now be over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina by Saturday evening.
A 5.8 magnitude earthquake is a strong one, but it could be much worse. It's a moderate quake on the Richter scale, which goes up to a magnitude of 10+. The Japan earthquake that damaged so many lives overseas back in March was a magnitude nine and had a depth of 20 miles. So, why did much of the East coast feel today's Mineral, Virginia centered earthquake?
It has to do with a few key factors. For one, today's earthquake wasn't that deep. Generally, the deeper the earthquake, the more concentrated the area that feels the quake is. If you have a more shallow quake, people will feel some "shaking" further away.
The second main factor here is that the East coast of the United States has far fewer fault lines then say, in California. So basically, if one area on the East coast shakes, the whole East coast shakes to some degree. The tremor ripples to the North and South of the quake's center uninterrupted by other fault lines, easily allowing millions of people to feel the ground beneath them move.
Today's quake was only about a few miles deep, but was felt as far North as Canada and as far South as Georgia. Amazing, if you think about it, but explainable.
Over the next few days, there will continue to be aftershocks with magnitudes less than 5.8, but this shouldn't be anything we have to worry about reoccurring often here along the East coast. That being said, scientists are researching the possibility of an East coast fault line being reactivated. Unlikely. More so just a freak incident in my opinion similar to one which happened nearly a century ago.
If you felt today's shock, sound off either here or on Facebook or Twitter! I'd love to hear your account of the quake.
And of course, my thoughts and prayers are with those near the epicenter of the earthquake who now, in some cases, must clean up and repair/rebuild.
Below is a short video of some earthquake damage in Virginia - take a look!
